Americans on the Verge of Y2K Complacency (2024)

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ - Less than four months remain before the worldlearns what the Year-2000 computer bug has in store for the systemsand people worldwide who depend on computer accuracy. It is unknownwhether mayhem or sighs of relief will break out on January 1,2000, when some computers mistakenly believe William McKinley isU.S. president. But according to a new Gallup survey, the vastmajority of Americans now feel fairly confident that any problemsthat ensue from the Y2K programming glitch will be minor, at worst,and will last for only a few days or weeks, at most.

The survey also documents widespread public confidence in thepreparedness efforts of every level of government in the UnitedStates, as well as in major businesses and corporations. Perhaps asa result, few Americans are thinking seriously about preparing forY2K failures.

The new Gallup survey, conducted August 25-29 in partnershipwith USA Today and the National Science Foundation (NSF), is thethird in a special series of polls tracking public awareness of andanxiety about the Y2K issue. The tracking trends show that thepercentage of Americans who have heard "a great deal" about Y2K hasincreased over the past nine months -- from 39% to 64% -- but thattheir concern over its potential impact has dropped. In December1998, more than half the public, 56%, said they were "very" or"somewhat" concerned about the potential problem, and just 44% saidthey were "not very" or "not at all" concerned. Today, just 36% ofAmericans say they are concerned, while close to two-thirds, 64%,seem relatively unconcerned.

All of this is not to say Americans think computers will performflawlessly. Most expect Y2K to create some problems around theworld, including 11% who expect major problems to occur and another71% who expect minor problems. Just 15% think there will be noproblems at all. However, these figures reflect a calmer publicthan the one interviewed last year, when close to one-third, 34%,expected major problems.

Americans are fretting even less about the impact of Y2K ontheir personal lives. Just 7% think it will cause major problemsfor themselves, personally, and another 52% expect minor problems,while 40% expect no problems at all. This concern level is alsodown from December 1998, when 14% expected major problems, and only30% anticipated no problems.

Long Grocery Lines on New Year's Eve?
Strong proof of Americans' complacency is found in theirtop-of-mind answers to the question "What specific actions orprecautions are you planning to take as January 1, 2000approaches?" Despite the recommendations of some governmentofficials to stock up on supplies as you would for a bad storm,half of all national adults, 51%, currently have no plans to takeany precautionary steps. This is up slightly from March of thisyear, when 44% said they would not take any particular steps.

Among the remaining Americans who say they do have plans, themost common precaution is stocking up on food, mentioned by 21%,followed by stocking up on water, at 15%. Another 7% plan to stockup on other types of household supplies, such as candles, radios,and firewood. Approximately 14% will make sure to have extra cash.In an indication of how few Americans harbor serious fears aboutthe impact of Y2K, just 6% plan to buy a generator or heater and 3%plan to store extra gasoline.

When Americans are asked separately about some specific possibleprecautions, the percentage who say they will take various steps issomewhat higher. For instance, when the public is probed, 51% saythey will obtain special confirmation or documentation of bankbalances and other financial records (compared to 8% in the unaidedquestion), 43% say they will avoid travelling on airplanes, and 36%say they will stockpile food and water. Still, even whenrespondents are alerted to the idea in the form of a question, only25% say they will withdraw a large amount of extra cash and only21% will stock up on gasoline.

Faith in Government and Industry
For months, government agencies, utility companies, and bankinginstitutions, among other groups, have waged public informationcampaigns assuring citizens and customers that Y2K preparations areproceeding nicely. It would appear these assurances are working.Overall confidence that various sectors will have properly upgradedtheir computer systems by the new year ranges from 91% for UnitedStates corporations and large businesses to 85% for stategovernments, 83% for local governments and 81% for the federalgovernment. These figures represent an increase of six to twelvepoints since the last Gallup/USA Today/NSF survey in March. Perhapsaccordingly, less than half the public believes that failures incritical systems such as air traffic control, banking, food andretail distribution, hospitals, emergency 911 networks, or nuclearpower or defense systems are likely.

Substantially lower confidence is seen in relation to U.S. smallbusinesses, with only 65% of Americans saying they are confidentthese businesses will be properly upgraded; however, 87% of workingAmericans do have confidence in their own employers.

The one area where Americans continue to express significantdoubt is in the preparedness of foreign governments. Almost halfthe public, 46%, lacks confidence that governments of otherdeveloped and industrialized countries will be prepared.Three-quarters feel unsure about the readiness of governments inThird World and other less developed countries.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomlyselected national sample of 1,014 adults, 18 years and older,conducted August 25-29, 1999. For results based on this sample, onecan say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum errorattributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, questionwording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys canintroduce error or bias into the findings of public opinionpolls.

As you may know, most computer systems around the world haveto be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the dateonce we reach the Year 2000. Do you think that computer mistakesdue to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minorproblems, or no problems at all?

Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000issue will cause major problems, minor problems or no problems atall for you personally?

How much have you seen or heard about the Year-2000 computerbug problem, sometimes called the Millennium Bug or the Y2K bug,before now -- a great deal, some, not much, or nothing atall?

Overall, how concerned are you about the Y2K computer bugproblem -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned,or not at all concerned?

To the extent Y2K computer problems occur, how long do youthink they will last -- for only a few days around January 1, 2000,for several weeks, for several months to a year, or for more than ayear?

Do you or your household plan to take any steps to prepare orprotect yourself from problems that might result from the Y2Kcomputer problem? IF YES: What specific actions or precautions areyou planning to take as January 1, 2000 approaches? [OPEN-ENDED; UPTO FIVE RESPONSES ALLOWED]
BASED ON - 497 - ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS

For each of the following, please say whether that issomething you probably will or will not do in order to protectyourself against problems associated with the Y2K computer bug. Howabout ... ? [RANDOM ORDER]
BASED ON - 517 - ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS

Y2K PREPARATION SUMMARY

Thinking about the U.S. economy, which of the followingstatements best describes the possible effect you think the Y2K bugwill have on the economy -- [It will cause a total economicbreakdown or catastrophe, it will cause serious problems in theeconomy such as slowing production or creating a recession, it willcause only minor problems in the economy, or it will have nonegative impact on the economy]?

Thinking more generally about the kind of problems whichcould possibly be created by the Y2K computer bug, which of thefollowing best describes how serious these problems will be in theUnited States -- [Y2K will result in disasters which could causethe loss of human life, Y2K will cause economic and socialdisruptions, but will not be life threatening, Y2K will cause onlyminor disruptions and inconveniences, or Y2K will have no negativeimpact on people's lives]?

Next I'm going to read some specific problems. As I read eachone, please say whether you think it likely or unlikely to occur asa result of Y2K. First, ... . Next, ... . [RANDOM ORDER]

Y2K OUTLOOK SUMMARY

As you may know, efforts are currently underway throughoutthe country to upgrade computer systems in order to correct the Y2Kcomputer problem. We'd like to know whether you are generallyconfident or NOT confident that each of the following levels ofgovernment and business will have upgraded their computer systemsbefore any Y2K problems can occur. How about ... ?

CONFIDENCE SUMMARY

Do you have a personal computer in your household, ornot?

Do you, personally, use your home computer to connect to theInternet or an on-line service such as Prodigy or AmericaOnline?
BASED ON - 661 - WHO HAVE HOME COMPUTER; ± 4 PCTPTS

Do you use a computer at work or school?

Do you, personally, use the Internet or other computeron-line service at your place of work or school?
BASED ON - 622 - WITH COMPUTER AT WORK; ± 4 PCTPTS

Do you know for sure whether your home computer or computersare programmed to comprehend the Year-2000 date field correctly, orare you unsure?
BASED ON - 661 - WITH HOME COMPUTER; ± 4 PCT PTS

Do you plan to take steps to make sure your computer isprogrammed correctly or are you going to wait and see whathappens?
BASED ON - 274 - WHO ARE NOT SURE HOME COMPUTER IS PROGRAMMEDCORRECTLY; ± 7 PCT PTS

(VOL.) volunteered response